The Alvarezes wrote up the results from their tests and sent them, along with their proposed explanation, to Science. Their paper, “Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction,” was published in June 1980. An asteroid six miles wide collided with the earth sixty-five million years ago. (The date was later revised to 66 mya.) Exploding on contact, it released energy of more than a million of the most powerful H-bombs ever tested. Debris, including iridium from the pulverized asteroid, spread around the globe.
Sunlight disappeared and temperatures plunged and a mass extinction ensued. The Alvarezes proposed that the main cause of the K-T mass extinction was not the impact itself or even the immediate aftermath. The truly catastrophic effect of the asteroid was the dust which spread around the globe and shut out the sunlight and blocked photosynthesis in plants. In the intervening decades, this account has been subjected to numerous refinements.
It generated lots of excitement, much of it beyond the bounds of paleontology. In the context of “hard-core uniformitarianism,” the impact hypothesis was worse than wrong — it couldn’t have happened. A few years later, an informal survey was conducted among paleontologists. A majority thought some sort of cosmic collision might have taken place. But only one in twenty thought it had anything to do with the extinction of the dinosaurs. Among professional paleontologists, the Alvarezes’ idea and in many cases the Alvarezes themselves were reviled.
But evidence for the hypothesis continued to accumulate. First was tiny grains of rock known as “shocked quartz.” Under high magnification, shocked quartz exhibits what look like scratch marks caused by high pressure that deform the crystal structure. Shocked quartz was first noted at nuclear test sites and later found near impact craters. In 1984, grains of shocked quartz were discovered in a layer of clay from the K-T boundary in eastern Montana.
It occurred to Walter Alvarez that if there had been a giant, impact-induced tsunami, it would have left behind a distinctive "fingerprint" in the sedimentary record. He scanned the records of thousands of sediment cores that had been drilled in the oceans, and found such a "fingerprint" in cores from the Gulf of Mexico (oops! Gulf of America). Finally, a hundred-mile-wide crater was discovered beneath the Yucatán Peninsula buried under half a mile of newer sediment.
This crater had shown up in gravity surveys taken in the nineteen-fifties by Mexico’s state-run oil company. When Walter located the cores in 1991 and examined them, they were found to contain a layer of glass—rock that had melted, then rapidly cooled at the K-T boundary. To the Alvarez camp, this
was the conclusive proof that they required about there having been an asteroid impact. It was enough to move many uncommitted scientists to support the impact hypothesis. By this time, Luis Alvarez had died of complications from esophageal cancer. The crater became more widely known, after the nearest town, as the Chicxulub crater.
When the Alvarezes had published their hypothesis, they knew of only three sites where the iridium layer was exposed. In the decades since, dozens more have been located. The confirmation of the impact hypothesis was a challenge to a uniformitarian viewpoint that basically every geologist and paleontologist had been trained in.
On land, every animal larger than a cat seems to have died out. The event’s most famous victims, the dinosaurs — or, to be more precise, the non-avian dinosaurs — suffered a hundred percent losses. Around two-thirds of the mammalian families living at the end of the Cretaceous disappear at the boundary. Everything (and everyone) alive today is descended from an organism that somehow survived the impact.
Change one detail, and we can imagine a completely different world. If the asteroid had hit a moment earlier or later, it would have hit deep ocean instead of shallow seas, releasing far less toxic gas, and killing many fewer species. If the asteroid had been delayed by just one minute, it might have missed Earth entirely. An astrophysicist has proposed that tiny oscillations of the sun's orbit flung the asteroid from the distant Oort cloud toward our planet. But for one small vibration in an unfathomably distant reach of deep space, dinosaurs might have survived — and humans might never have existed.
Natural Selection is often presented as a relentless improvement from worse to better. Richard Dawkins once said that “Nature is a miserly accountant, grudging the pennies, watching the clock, punishing the smallest extravagance." But evolution at times proceeds in an unpredictable fashion. This is obvious when you consider that the evolution of mammals only happened because of an asteroid strike. But we mostly hear about survival of the fittest not survival of the luckiest.